The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday advised the OPEC + alliance to deal with the increase in oil production in Libya, revising its forecast for global crude demand next year by 170,000 barrels per day (bpd).
The agency, based in Paris, announced in its December report that OPEC oil production in November increased by 730,000 bpd compared to October, reaching 25 million barrels per day due to increased production in Libya.
"In terms of production in 13 OPEC member countries, Libya led the month-on-month growth in November, with total oil production rising to 730 thousand barrels per day to 25 million barrels per day, and falling by 4.3 million barrels per day year-on-year," the agency reported. Only 10 of the 13 countries participating in the OPEC + agreement, Iran, Venezuela and Libya are excluded.
The IAEA welcomed effective supply management efforts by major producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, through this month's agreement to continue to significantly curb supplies. Adding, "it is clear that demand will be weaker for longer than expected when concluding the agreement the supplies in April and should be dealt with increased production from Libya. The market remains fragile and adjustments must be made with caution."
It warned that the launch of coronavirus vaccination campaigns this month would not reflect a rapid increase in global oil demand. The agency revised its forecast for global oil demand this year by 50,000 barrels per day, and for next year by 170,000 barrels per day, noting the scarcity of demand for aviation fuel as the number of air travelers decreases.
The monthly OPEC report released on Monday estimated Libya's share of the increase in the coalition's production to 93%, as a result of the lifting of the blockade on oil facilities. At the time the daily average was 1.28 million barrels per day this month, up from 1.25 million barrels per day at the end of November.